Last Updated 2nd September 2022.
When these memes turn up in your inbox they can be quite frightening. Some of these things do turn out to be true. And if this were true, it would be quite extraordinary. It talks about last week and that immediatel makes it difficult to verify.
That would be more than double our normal deaths though and that would be visually obvious in mortuaries around the country.
My initial response is that it belongs to someone creating some drama to ‘support their own cause’ whatever that might be.
It’s an important issue though and we’ve seen a video in the last week from across the Tasman showing quite legitimately the Australian death rate is around 17% higher than normal.
That video points out that any Normal percentage change should be much lower around 3%.
As our population age increases that proportional difference is to be expected.
The only other anomaly I’m aware of is that, the 2020 year had a lower than normal death rate because of the covid response restrictions.
Depending on where you start at say 2017 or 2020 to work out your baseline the percentage difference changes
Looking the Australian video using only the covid period they arrive at a figure of 16 – 17 percent above normal.
If I use NZ figures from 2019 – 2021 my comparative figures are 14 – 15 percent. Slightly lower as I’ve suggested above.
If I make a direct comparison with the first 5 months of this year between Australia and NZ I suggest their figures are about 2% too high because they haven’t allowed for a lower death rate in 2020.
14 – 15 percent is still a legitimate concern and I’d rather have a legitimate concern than a competition with the Aussies over death rates
When I look at the covid deaths being reported in the mainstream and that would not be sufficient to say that these were Omicrom related deaths.
I haven’t been in touch with NZDSOS or any other other group that is keeping track of these concerns but if you have, I’d be interested to have here what you are hearing about our excess mortality.
The initial response is that this is a confusing post, and I’d agree. I got a statistician to explain the situation to me, rather than try to make sense if it myself.
Here is an interesting article from the UK with another point of view. on excess deaths.
Only a small fraction of them — around 300 — are from Covid, which has led to calls for an urgent investigation into what is behind the excess mortality.
And another set of eyes having a quick look:
For the year ending May, deaths have increased by about 9 percent between 2022 and 2021, or by about 7 percent when using the average number of deaths for the May years 2019-2021.
The July year shows a slightly larger increase in deaths, 13 percent between 2022 and 2021 July years, or a 10 percent increase between 2022 and the average across 2019-2021.
There’s definitely a dramatic effect if we only use the covid period. That provides an unrealistic calculation of our death rates.
We’re still left with an unexplained increase in all causes of mortality. Putting aside the discrepancy in calculations it appears reasonable to say that both Australia and New Zealand populations are dying at a rate of around 10% above what would have been expected pre covid.
Higher than normal death rates are not going to stop being a matter of discussion. Overseas trends show a high degree of official resistance to investigating causes.
The public response though is like suicide. Shock and Shame within the family and an unwillingness to discuss that death.
That part of human nature and grief is what officials and politicians will prey on to avoid inquiries and disclosures.
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