Post Election Problems

What is going to change or simply become obvious once we’ve got past the election narrative … ?

We know the current situation with the housing market. It is the rhetoric of the major parties and (wading through minor party policy) it is at least seriously taken into consideration by the New Conservative Party with a commitment to encourage home ownership and to increase the housing stock.

In a country 4 times the size of Ireland with the same population we should not have a homeless sector in the population.

[Situation normal] … thousands of upmarket travellers would travel overseas.

[SNAFU] Those individuals now can’t and as an alternative are booking up what is available in New Zealand. Currently the upmarket travellers are booking holidays into NEXT YEAR. That’s right. It’s a tight market, booking 6 months in advance.

So, what’s happening on the ground? All those lightweight, low cost tourist centres with casual accommodation that have also been housing the transient tourists, the roaming Kiwis, and the WINZ overload are seeing the opportunity to upgrade to better paying customers and probably better behaved customers.

All those normally self-sufficient rogues, unless they have family or friends nearby now have a problem. No reasonably priced accommodation. Same for the transient workers who move from orchard to agriculture to whatever work is available.

Our internal tourist market after initially being hard hit will recover much faster than expected but our housing situation will suddenly worsen as a result.

Our next parliament needs to be a rising political force with more than just the skills to create – there must be a determination to bring about the promised but absent change from the current government.

Boxing on in the face of scant media, (likely) New Conservative voters can only see the potential in this party if they look at the candidate biographies on the Party’s website.

For a new party crossing the 5% threshold though, that’s a huge task laying in wait.


Election 2020

Elections are all different – what distinguishes this New Zealand election from others without having to read the entire political history of the world?

1. In modern politics we have wobbled back and forth between left and right and centrist monetary differences.

2. Historically voters rush to the right in times of uncertainty.

3. During this term an unprepared Labour led coalition dawdled its way into an unexpected pandemic response and spent its political capital with liberal abandon.

In the face of the above, the election should produce a right wing government. Human nature is however being tested by the empathetic media machine and what I would call some mischievous polls.

The recent international elections in the US, England and Australia have all produced a move towards Conservative politics and why shouldn’t we follow suit. There’s a significant underlying undecided vote not reflected in the polls.

Which way is that vote going. In less unstable times most likely to the left. What’s different this time for us?

The combination of a Conservative trend and the prospect of financial instability following a crisis are the brewing storm which should see what MSM would call an unexpected and unprecedented conflict with their narrative, when really it’s just voters being normal and sensible.

That outcome should involve National, ACT and New Conservative flying in the face of the media narrative. If this doesn’t happen then we’ve got some new trends to examine but I’m still going with human nature and a win to the right.